TY - JOUR
T1 - Whose Job Will Be Taken Over by a Computer? The Role of Personality in Predicting Job Computerizability over the Lifespan
AU - Damian, Rodica Ioana
AU - Spengler, Marion
AU - Roberts, Brent W.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2017 European Association of Personality Psychology
PY - 2017/5/1
Y1 - 2017/5/1
N2 - Economists estimate that 47% of US jobs will be computerized in the future. This paper tests the prospective role of a comprehensive range personality factors on selection into more (or less) computerizable jobs. We used a US representative high school sample (N = 346 660) and a longitudinal design. At baseline, we measured social background, intelligence, personality traits and vocational interests. In two follow-ups (11 and 50 years later), we recorded occupations and coded their probability of being computerized based on the skills required and technological developments. Multiple regressions showed that, regardless of social background, people who were more intelligent, mature, interested in arts, and sciences at baseline, and selected into jobs that had a lower probability of computerization. On average, a one standard deviation increase in each of these traits predicted an average of 4 percentage points drop in the probability of one's job of being computerized. At the US population level, this is equivalent with saving 5.8 million people from losing their future careers to computerization. Most effects replicated across time. Path analyses showed that educational attainment mediated these effects and some direct effects remained. This highlights the importance of personality on occupational selection and in shaping the labour market.
AB - Economists estimate that 47% of US jobs will be computerized in the future. This paper tests the prospective role of a comprehensive range personality factors on selection into more (or less) computerizable jobs. We used a US representative high school sample (N = 346 660) and a longitudinal design. At baseline, we measured social background, intelligence, personality traits and vocational interests. In two follow-ups (11 and 50 years later), we recorded occupations and coded their probability of being computerized based on the skills required and technological developments. Multiple regressions showed that, regardless of social background, people who were more intelligent, mature, interested in arts, and sciences at baseline, and selected into jobs that had a lower probability of computerization. On average, a one standard deviation increase in each of these traits predicted an average of 4 percentage points drop in the probability of one's job of being computerized. At the US population level, this is equivalent with saving 5.8 million people from losing their future careers to computerization. Most effects replicated across time. Path analyses showed that educational attainment mediated these effects and some direct effects remained. This highlights the importance of personality on occupational selection and in shaping the labour market.
KW - educational attainment
KW - job computerizability
KW - personality
KW - socio-economic status
KW - vocational interests
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U2 - 10.1002/per.2103
DO - 10.1002/per.2103
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85019102367
SN - 0890-2070
VL - 31
SP - 291
EP - 310
JO - European Journal of Personality
JF - European Journal of Personality
IS - 3
ER -