TY - JOUR
T1 - Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation
AU - Zhang, Gan
N1 - The authors thank the science programs (SOUSEI, TOUGOU, SI-CAT, DIAS) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan for sharing the large ensemble simulation data and the tropical cyclone data (https://doi.org/10.20783/DIAS.640). We also would like to acknowledge the data access and computing support provided by the NCAR CMIP Analysis Platform (https://doi.org/10.5065/D60R9MSP). Early discussions with Isaac Held and Adam Sobel helped motivate this study. G.Z. thanks Suzana Camargo, Tsung-Lin Hsieh, Thomas Knutson, Hiroyuki Murakami, and Yi Zhang for stimulating discussions that helped improve the study and its presentation. G.Z. also appreciates the support of the faculty start-up funds provided by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
PY - 2023/12
Y1 - 2023/12
N2 - The future risk of tropical cyclones (TCs) strongly depends on changes in TC frequency, but models have persistently produced contrasting projections. A satisfactory explanation of the projected changes also remains elusive. Here we show a warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces TC formation. This contraction manifests as stronger equatorial convection and weaker off-equatorial convection. It has been robustly projected by climate models, particularly in the northern hemisphere. This contraction shortens TC seasons by delaying the poleward migration of the intertropical convergence zone. At seasonal peaks of TC activity, the equatorial and off-equatorial components of this contraction are associated with TC-hindering environmental changes. Finally, the convection contraction and associated warming patterns can partly explain the ensemble spread in projecting future TC frequency. This study highlights the role of convection contraction and provides motivation for coordinated research to solidify our confidence in future TC risk projections.
AB - The future risk of tropical cyclones (TCs) strongly depends on changes in TC frequency, but models have persistently produced contrasting projections. A satisfactory explanation of the projected changes also remains elusive. Here we show a warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces TC formation. This contraction manifests as stronger equatorial convection and weaker off-equatorial convection. It has been robustly projected by climate models, particularly in the northern hemisphere. This contraction shortens TC seasons by delaying the poleward migration of the intertropical convergence zone. At seasonal peaks of TC activity, the equatorial and off-equatorial components of this contraction are associated with TC-hindering environmental changes. Finally, the convection contraction and associated warming patterns can partly explain the ensemble spread in projecting future TC frequency. This study highlights the role of convection contraction and provides motivation for coordinated research to solidify our confidence in future TC risk projections.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-023-41911-5
DO - 10.1038/s41467-023-41911-5
M3 - Article
C2 - 37805508
AN - SCOPUS:85173694264
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 14
JO - Nature communications
JF - Nature communications
IS - 1
M1 - 6274
ER -