Verification system for probabilistic hydrograph forecasts

The Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) produces probabilistic forecast through a statistical analysis of an ensemble of model generated possible future runoff time series. Theses possible runoff time series are computed using historically observed precipitation and temperature time series as input to hydrologic models which are initialized with the current states of the hydrologic system. It is assumed that the input time series for ESP forecasts are the result of stochastic processes, with previous time periods being realizations of those processes. Forecast verification will lead to more effective resource management and more effective natural disaster mitigation.