TY - GEN
T1 - Using Climate Data to Understand Shifts in the Autumn Migration Phenology of Dabbling and Diving Ducks in the Illinois River Valley
AU - Kross, Chelsea S.
AU - Beach, Cheyenne R.
AU - Gilbert, Andrew
AU - Osborn, Joshua
AU - Williams, Matthew
AU - Yetter, Aaron P.
AU - Fournier, Auriel M. V.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Climate change has significantly affected the migration phenologies of bird species throughout the world. Many species are migrating later in the fall season, which can create a mismatch between arrival and resource availability, reduce the accuracy of population monitoring initiatives, and alter regional social and economic opportunities. Additionally, identifying changes in migration phenologies and connecting those changes to climate requires long-term monitoring data that are often difficult to collect. The objectives of this study were to determine the effect of climate and weather on arrival and departures dates of waterfowl in the Illinois River Valley. We tested for changes in autumn migration timing for seven waterfowl species: Mallard, Northern Pintail, Blue-winged Teal, American Green-winged Teal, Gadwall, Lesser Scaup, and Canvasback. Using data collected during aerial surveys from 1981-2019, we applied generalized linear mixed models to test for effects of year, drought, climate, and weather covariates. Specifically, we included Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Weather Severity Index (WSI) impacts on the peak migration Julian Date, which we predict will result in delayed migration, with potential interactions between local weather and continental climate on an annual basis. Providing a framework and integrating a variety of data for understanding how climate and weather interact to affect migration will be a useful tool for wildlife managers to inform management decisions and regulations.
AB - Climate change has significantly affected the migration phenologies of bird species throughout the world. Many species are migrating later in the fall season, which can create a mismatch between arrival and resource availability, reduce the accuracy of population monitoring initiatives, and alter regional social and economic opportunities. Additionally, identifying changes in migration phenologies and connecting those changes to climate requires long-term monitoring data that are often difficult to collect. The objectives of this study were to determine the effect of climate and weather on arrival and departures dates of waterfowl in the Illinois River Valley. We tested for changes in autumn migration timing for seven waterfowl species: Mallard, Northern Pintail, Blue-winged Teal, American Green-winged Teal, Gadwall, Lesser Scaup, and Canvasback. Using data collected during aerial surveys from 1981-2019, we applied generalized linear mixed models to test for effects of year, drought, climate, and weather covariates. Specifically, we included Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Weather Severity Index (WSI) impacts on the peak migration Julian Date, which we predict will result in delayed migration, with potential interactions between local weather and continental climate on an annual basis. Providing a framework and integrating a variety of data for understanding how climate and weather interact to affect migration will be a useful tool for wildlife managers to inform management decisions and regulations.
UR - https://midwestfw.org/html/2021techtalkabstracts.shtml
M3 - Conference contribution
BT - 81st Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference
ER -