Uncertainties in paleoliquefaction analysis: Preliminary findings

The technique of using paleoliquefaction features for seismic analysis involves systematically searching for liquefaction features throughout large geographic areas, and then using those findings to quantitatively back-calculate the causative strength of shaking, i.e., earthquake magnitude (M) and peak ground acceleration (pga). Despite important contributions from previous studies to assessing regional seismic hazards, all paleoliquefaction studies performed to date are hampered by issues of uncertainty. These uncertainties relate to both the techniques used for back-analysis, but also to the collection and interpretation of field data. In this paper, we outline many of these uncertainties and briefly present preliminary efforts to quantify them. Copyright ASCE 2007.