Toward demonstrating the monetary value of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for nuclear power plants

Marzieh Abolhelm, Justin Pence, Zahra Mohaghegh, Ernie Kee

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

Inefficiencies in the operation and maintenance of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have caused unnecessary shutdowns, decreases in production, and increases in system risk. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), which guides risk-informed decision-making, helps expand the operational envelope by allowing more flexibility, adding to the efficiency of preventive and corrective actions and, therefore, generates more profit. However, the financial bottom line of PRA has not yet been formally estimated. This paper reports on the current status of first-of-its-kind research for estimating the monetary value of PRA. The proposed steps for this research include: (1) developing a Generic Financial Model (GFM) to estimate the Return On Investment (ROI) that results from profit generation or cost reduction associated with a typical PRA activity in an NPP (2) implementing GFM for one of the PRA programs and validating GFM, (3) conducting uncertainty quantification for the estimated ROI from Step 2, (4) identifying existing PRA programs at an NPP (i.e., South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company; STPNOC), (5) obtaining ROI for all the PRA activities of STPNOC, running uncertainty analysis for the total ROI, providing a probabilistic monetary value of PRA, and (6) applying importance measure and sensitivity analyses to propose improvement approaches for PRA activities.

Original languageEnglish (US)
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014
Event12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2014 - Honolulu, United States
Duration: Jun 22 2014Jun 27 2014

Other

Other12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2014
CountryUnited States
CityHonolulu
Period6/22/146/27/14

Fingerprint

Risk assessment
Nuclear power plants
Profitability
Uncertainty analysis
Plant shutdowns
Cost reduction
Decision making

Keywords

  • Business case for PRA
  • Financial modeling
  • Monetary value of PRA
  • Probabilistic Risk Assessment
  • Socio-technical risk analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Cite this

Abolhelm, M., Pence, J., Mohaghegh, Z., & Kee, E. (2014). Toward demonstrating the monetary value of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for nuclear power plants. Paper presented at 12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2014, Honolulu, United States.

Toward demonstrating the monetary value of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for nuclear power plants. / Abolhelm, Marzieh; Pence, Justin; Mohaghegh, Zahra; Kee, Ernie.

2014. Paper presented at 12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2014, Honolulu, United States.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abolhelm, M, Pence, J, Mohaghegh, Z & Kee, E 2014, 'Toward demonstrating the monetary value of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for nuclear power plants', Paper presented at 12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2014, Honolulu, United States, 6/22/14 - 6/27/14.
Abolhelm M, Pence J, Mohaghegh Z, Kee E. Toward demonstrating the monetary value of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for nuclear power plants. 2014. Paper presented at 12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2014, Honolulu, United States.
Abolhelm, Marzieh ; Pence, Justin ; Mohaghegh, Zahra ; Kee, Ernie. / Toward demonstrating the monetary value of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for nuclear power plants. Paper presented at 12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2014, Honolulu, United States.
@conference{5b31cfd6c5204897a4ed552bcfcd69ad,
title = "Toward demonstrating the monetary value of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for nuclear power plants",
abstract = "Inefficiencies in the operation and maintenance of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have caused unnecessary shutdowns, decreases in production, and increases in system risk. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), which guides risk-informed decision-making, helps expand the operational envelope by allowing more flexibility, adding to the efficiency of preventive and corrective actions and, therefore, generates more profit. However, the financial bottom line of PRA has not yet been formally estimated. This paper reports on the current status of first-of-its-kind research for estimating the monetary value of PRA. The proposed steps for this research include: (1) developing a Generic Financial Model (GFM) to estimate the Return On Investment (ROI) that results from profit generation or cost reduction associated with a typical PRA activity in an NPP (2) implementing GFM for one of the PRA programs and validating GFM, (3) conducting uncertainty quantification for the estimated ROI from Step 2, (4) identifying existing PRA programs at an NPP (i.e., South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company; STPNOC), (5) obtaining ROI for all the PRA activities of STPNOC, running uncertainty analysis for the total ROI, providing a probabilistic monetary value of PRA, and (6) applying importance measure and sensitivity analyses to propose improvement approaches for PRA activities.",
keywords = "Business case for PRA, Financial modeling, Monetary value of PRA, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Socio-technical risk analysis",
author = "Marzieh Abolhelm and Justin Pence and Zahra Mohaghegh and Ernie Kee",
year = "2014",
month = "1",
day = "1",
language = "English (US)",
note = "12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2014 ; Conference date: 22-06-2014 Through 27-06-2014",

}

TY - CONF

T1 - Toward demonstrating the monetary value of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for nuclear power plants

AU - Abolhelm, Marzieh

AU - Pence, Justin

AU - Mohaghegh, Zahra

AU - Kee, Ernie

PY - 2014/1/1

Y1 - 2014/1/1

N2 - Inefficiencies in the operation and maintenance of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have caused unnecessary shutdowns, decreases in production, and increases in system risk. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), which guides risk-informed decision-making, helps expand the operational envelope by allowing more flexibility, adding to the efficiency of preventive and corrective actions and, therefore, generates more profit. However, the financial bottom line of PRA has not yet been formally estimated. This paper reports on the current status of first-of-its-kind research for estimating the monetary value of PRA. The proposed steps for this research include: (1) developing a Generic Financial Model (GFM) to estimate the Return On Investment (ROI) that results from profit generation or cost reduction associated with a typical PRA activity in an NPP (2) implementing GFM for one of the PRA programs and validating GFM, (3) conducting uncertainty quantification for the estimated ROI from Step 2, (4) identifying existing PRA programs at an NPP (i.e., South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company; STPNOC), (5) obtaining ROI for all the PRA activities of STPNOC, running uncertainty analysis for the total ROI, providing a probabilistic monetary value of PRA, and (6) applying importance measure and sensitivity analyses to propose improvement approaches for PRA activities.

AB - Inefficiencies in the operation and maintenance of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have caused unnecessary shutdowns, decreases in production, and increases in system risk. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), which guides risk-informed decision-making, helps expand the operational envelope by allowing more flexibility, adding to the efficiency of preventive and corrective actions and, therefore, generates more profit. However, the financial bottom line of PRA has not yet been formally estimated. This paper reports on the current status of first-of-its-kind research for estimating the monetary value of PRA. The proposed steps for this research include: (1) developing a Generic Financial Model (GFM) to estimate the Return On Investment (ROI) that results from profit generation or cost reduction associated with a typical PRA activity in an NPP (2) implementing GFM for one of the PRA programs and validating GFM, (3) conducting uncertainty quantification for the estimated ROI from Step 2, (4) identifying existing PRA programs at an NPP (i.e., South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company; STPNOC), (5) obtaining ROI for all the PRA activities of STPNOC, running uncertainty analysis for the total ROI, providing a probabilistic monetary value of PRA, and (6) applying importance measure and sensitivity analyses to propose improvement approaches for PRA activities.

KW - Business case for PRA

KW - Financial modeling

KW - Monetary value of PRA

KW - Probabilistic Risk Assessment

KW - Socio-technical risk analysis

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84925071149&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84925071149&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Paper

AN - SCOPUS:84925071149

ER -