Toward climate conventions scenario analysis for a climatic protection policy

The 1980s have seen an unprecedented growth in awareness of the problem of climatic change. The 1990s will be the critical decade during which collective concern must be turned into concerted action through global climate conventions and related protocols. This article proposes such a strategy with the following elements: setting of a warming ceiling and a rate of change per decade; development of emission scenarios which come close to the set limits using climate modeling; allocation of emission shares by nation; assessment of emission reduction potential by gas, source, measure and nation; development of national emission reduction plans; agreement, implementation and supervision of such plans; establishment of a climate fund. The effectiveness of scenarios is assessed using a one dimensional(1-D) climate model from 1860 to 2100. -from Authors