Time-dependent probability of exceeding restoration levels in resilience analysis

F. Nocera, P. Gardoni, G. P. Cimellaro

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Resilience typically refers to the ability of a system to adapt to changing conditions, withstand and rapidly recover from disruptions due to extreme/rare events. This paper proposes a methodology to predict the recovery process of a selected system given past recovery data and estimate the probability of exceeding a target value of functionality at any time. A Bayesian inference is used to update the model parameters as new data become available while the recovery process is in progress. The methodology is general and can be applied to continuous recovery processes such as those of economic or natural systems, as well as to discrete recovery process such as those of engineering systems. As an illustration, the proposed methodology is implemented considering a bridge restoration following seismic damage.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationMaintenance, Safety, Risk, Management and Life-Cycle Performance of Bridges - Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management, IABMAS 2018
EditorsNigel Powers, Dan M. Frangopol, Riadh Al-Mahaidi, Colin Caprani
PublisherCRC Press/Balkema
Pages2012-2019
Number of pages8
ISBN (Print)9781138730458
StatePublished - 2018
Event9th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management, IABMAS 2018 - Melbourne, Australia
Duration: Jul 9 2018Jul 13 2018

Publication series

NameMaintenance, Safety, Risk, Management and Life-Cycle Performance of Bridges - Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management, IABMAS 2018

Conference

Conference9th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management, IABMAS 2018
Country/TerritoryAustralia
CityMelbourne
Period7/9/187/13/18

Keywords

  • Decision Support
  • Metrics
  • Recovery
  • Reliability analysis
  • Resilience

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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