The value of USDA situation and outlook information in hog and cattle markets

Olga Isengildina, Scott H. Irwin, Darrel L. Good

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of six major USDA reports in hog and cattle markets: Cattle; Cattle on Feed; Cold Storage; Hogs and Pigs; Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDPO); and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). A TARCH-in-mean model, with dummy variables to measure the impact of USDA reports and other external factors, is used to model close-to-open live/lean hog and live cattle futures returns from January 1985 through December 2004. The analysis revealed a statistically significant impact of all but Cattle and Cold Storage reports in live/lean hog futures, and all but Cold Storage reports in live cattle futures. Hogs and Pigs reports had the highest impact on live/lean hog returns by increasing conditional standard deviation 96%. Cattle, Cattle on Feed, and Hogs and Pigs reports had the highest impact on live cattle returns by increasing conditional standard deviation between 26% and 37.5%.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)262-282
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Volume31
Issue number2
StatePublished - Aug 1 2006

Keywords

  • Cattle
  • Event study
  • Hogs
  • Livestock
  • Public information
  • TARCH Model
  • USDA reports

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Animal Science and Zoology
  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Economics and Econometrics

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