The price-forecasting performance of futures markets for live cattle and hogs: A disaggregated analysis

Larry Martin, Philip Garcia

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Four hypotheses about the price-forecasting performance of live cattle and hog futures are tested using disaggregated data. Live cattle futures are found to have inadequate forecasting performance for each hypothesis and do not provide better forecasts than lagged cash prices. Live hog futures perform well for three hypotheses, but not when economic conditions are unstable. Hog futures provide better forecasts than lagged cash prices. The analysis does not support the contention that these futures markets are agencies for rational price formation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)209-215
Number of pages7
JournalAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics
Volume63
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - May 1981
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Beef cattle
  • Futures markets
  • Hogs
  • Price forecasting performance

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Economics and Econometrics

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