TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the western united states
T2 - An applications perspective
AU - Brown, Timothy J.
AU - Hall, Beth L.
AU - Westerling, Anthony L.
N1 - Funding Information:
DRI support for this research came from the Department of Energy and the NOAA Office of Global Programs via the Scripps California Applications Program.
Funding Information:
The Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Pilot effort was supported largely by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research, US Department of Energy through numerous contracts and subcontracts to the participants. The production runs of global and regional models were largely accomplished with resources of the Center for Computational Sciences (CCS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy. The San Diego Supercomputer Center provided dedicated machine resources for the crucial ocean initialization component of the ACPI Pilot. These ocean data were provided by ECCO state estimation activity at SIO. Los Alamos National Laboratories provided computer resources for PCM runs, ECCO work and additional feasibility tests associated with the ocean initialization. In addition to DOE support, many of the participating organizations also supported the effort. These include the Scripps Institution Of Oceanography, USGS, DOD, National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Washington and Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratories.
PY - 2004/1
Y1 - 2004/1
N2 - High-temporal resolution meteorological output from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) is used to assess changes in wildland fire danger across the western United States due to climatic changes projected in the 21st century. A business-as-usual scenario incorporating changing greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations until the year 2089 is compared to a 1975-1996 base period. Changes in relative humidity, especially drying over much of the West, are projected to increase the number of days of high fire danger (based on the energy release component (ERC) index) at least through the year 2089 in comparison to the base period. The regions most affected are the northern Rockies, Great Basin and the Southwest - regions that have already experienced significant fire activity early this century. In these regions starting around the year 2070, when the model climate CO2 has doubled from present-day, the increase in the number of days that ERC (fuel model G) exceeds a value of 60 is as much as two to three weeks. The Front Range of the Rockies and the High Plains regions do not show a similar change. For regions where change is predicted, new fire and fuels management strategies and policies may be needed to address added climatic risks while also accommodating complex and changing ecosystems subject to human stresses on the region. These results, and their potential impact on fire and land management policy development, demonstrate the value of climate models for important management applications, as encouraged under the Department of Energy Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI), under whose auspices this work was performed.
AB - High-temporal resolution meteorological output from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) is used to assess changes in wildland fire danger across the western United States due to climatic changes projected in the 21st century. A business-as-usual scenario incorporating changing greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations until the year 2089 is compared to a 1975-1996 base period. Changes in relative humidity, especially drying over much of the West, are projected to increase the number of days of high fire danger (based on the energy release component (ERC) index) at least through the year 2089 in comparison to the base period. The regions most affected are the northern Rockies, Great Basin and the Southwest - regions that have already experienced significant fire activity early this century. In these regions starting around the year 2070, when the model climate CO2 has doubled from present-day, the increase in the number of days that ERC (fuel model G) exceeds a value of 60 is as much as two to three weeks. The Front Range of the Rockies and the High Plains regions do not show a similar change. For regions where change is predicted, new fire and fuels management strategies and policies may be needed to address added climatic risks while also accommodating complex and changing ecosystems subject to human stresses on the region. These results, and their potential impact on fire and land management policy development, demonstrate the value of climate models for important management applications, as encouraged under the Department of Energy Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI), under whose auspices this work was performed.
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U2 - 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013680.07783.de
DO - 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013680.07783.de
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:1542321394
VL - 62
SP - 365
EP - 388
JO - Climatic Change
JF - Climatic Change
SN - 0165-0009
IS - 1-3
ER -