TY - JOUR
T1 - The Goldman Dilemma is dead
T2 - what elite athletes really think about doping, winning, and death
AU - Woolf, J.
AU - Mazanov, J.
AU - Connor, J.
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). Data were collected and analysed independently of WADA and the authors hold the rights to publication.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2017/7/3
Y1 - 2017/7/3
N2 - In the 1980s and 1990s, Goldman’s eponymous ‘Dilemma’ asked if athletes would take a substance that guaranteed sporting glory but killed them in 5 years. The 50% acceptance rate was widely reported as evidence supporting the need for anti-doping policy. Evidence from athletes surveyed in 2011 showed only 1% acceptance. To explore why such striking variation exists, and its implications for policy, this study investigated both the validity and reliability of the original Dilemma and how early twenty-first century elite athletes interpret and understand the Dilemma. The reporting of the original Dilemma demonstrated a lack of scientific rigour, which raises questions about the Dilemma’s status as valid and reliable evidence to inform sports drug control policy. Cognitive interviews with a sample of 30 athletes (30 athletes; 14 female; 19 international; age 22.17 ± 2.13) revealed the death outcome made the Dilemma implausible; it was too absolute an outcome given athletes’ non-sporting aspirations (e.g. marriage and parenthood). The idea that a substance could be undetectable and guarantee sporting success was also considered implausible. Athlete conflation of performance enhancement with illegality, immorality and negative health outcomes further undermined perceived plausibility. Thus, the athletes in the sample considered the Dilemma largely implausible. As a consequence of the questionable scientific basis of the original, and the implausibility of the Dilemma to early twenty-first century athletes, the oft-cited 50% acceptance rate is of historical interest only and no longer relevant to drug control policy debate in sport.
AB - In the 1980s and 1990s, Goldman’s eponymous ‘Dilemma’ asked if athletes would take a substance that guaranteed sporting glory but killed them in 5 years. The 50% acceptance rate was widely reported as evidence supporting the need for anti-doping policy. Evidence from athletes surveyed in 2011 showed only 1% acceptance. To explore why such striking variation exists, and its implications for policy, this study investigated both the validity and reliability of the original Dilemma and how early twenty-first century elite athletes interpret and understand the Dilemma. The reporting of the original Dilemma demonstrated a lack of scientific rigour, which raises questions about the Dilemma’s status as valid and reliable evidence to inform sports drug control policy. Cognitive interviews with a sample of 30 athletes (30 athletes; 14 female; 19 international; age 22.17 ± 2.13) revealed the death outcome made the Dilemma implausible; it was too absolute an outcome given athletes’ non-sporting aspirations (e.g. marriage and parenthood). The idea that a substance could be undetectable and guarantee sporting success was also considered implausible. Athlete conflation of performance enhancement with illegality, immorality and negative health outcomes further undermined perceived plausibility. Thus, the athletes in the sample considered the Dilemma largely implausible. As a consequence of the questionable scientific basis of the original, and the implausibility of the Dilemma to early twenty-first century athletes, the oft-cited 50% acceptance rate is of historical interest only and no longer relevant to drug control policy debate in sport.
KW - Goldman Dilemma
KW - Olympic
KW - cognitive interview
KW - drug policy
KW - performance-enhancement
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U2 - 10.1080/19406940.2016.1194875
DO - 10.1080/19406940.2016.1194875
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84992740877
VL - 9
SP - 453
EP - 467
JO - International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics
JF - International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics
SN - 1940-6940
IS - 3
ER -