TY - JOUR
T1 - THE EXTENDED ECONOMETRIC INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL WITH HETEROGENEOUS HOUSEHOLD DEMAND SYSTEM
AU - Kim, Kijin
AU - Kratena, Kurt
AU - Hewings, Geoffrey J.D.
N1 - Funding Information:
We acknowledge the support of the EU center, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in the form of a Graduate Student Research Travel Grant. The PCE bridge matrix for 2010 was kindly provided by Dr Douglas Meade from the Inter-industry Forecasting project at the University of Maryland (INFORUM).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 The International Input–Output Association.
PY - 2015/4/3
Y1 - 2015/4/3
N2 - This paper proposes an extension to the regional econometric input–output model (REIM) [Conway, R.S. (1990) The Washington Projection and Simulation Model: A Regional Interindustry Econometric Model. International Regional Science Review, 13, 141–165; Israilevich, P.R., G.J.D. Hewings, M. Sonis and G.R. Schindler (1997) Forecasting Structural Change with a Regional Econometric Input–Output Model. Journal of Regional Science, 37, 565–590]. We integrate a demand system with age and income parameters into the REIM. The extended model thus addresses concerns about the effects of household heterogeneity. The initial testing is conducted with a model for the Chicago metropolitan area. First, using aggregate expenditure data by income and age groups, the almost ideal demand system with group fixed effects is constructed. Next, the estimated demand system is linked to the REIM to reflect long-term changes in the age and income distribution of households. The long-range simulation from the extended model takes into account structural changes in expenditure type stemming from changing demographic composition. The extended model further broadens the scope of impact analysis under various scenarios associated with age and income changes.
AB - This paper proposes an extension to the regional econometric input–output model (REIM) [Conway, R.S. (1990) The Washington Projection and Simulation Model: A Regional Interindustry Econometric Model. International Regional Science Review, 13, 141–165; Israilevich, P.R., G.J.D. Hewings, M. Sonis and G.R. Schindler (1997) Forecasting Structural Change with a Regional Econometric Input–Output Model. Journal of Regional Science, 37, 565–590]. We integrate a demand system with age and income parameters into the REIM. The extended model thus addresses concerns about the effects of household heterogeneity. The initial testing is conducted with a model for the Chicago metropolitan area. First, using aggregate expenditure data by income and age groups, the almost ideal demand system with group fixed effects is constructed. Next, the estimated demand system is linked to the REIM to reflect long-term changes in the age and income distribution of households. The long-range simulation from the extended model takes into account structural changes in expenditure type stemming from changing demographic composition. The extended model further broadens the scope of impact analysis under various scenarios associated with age and income changes.
KW - Almost ideal demand system (AIDS)
KW - Demand systems
KW - Econometric input–output model
KW - Long-run disaggregated models
KW - Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR)
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U2 - 10.1080/09535314.2014.991778
DO - 10.1080/09535314.2014.991778
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84930571868
VL - 27
SP - 257
EP - 285
JO - Economic Systems Research
JF - Economic Systems Research
SN - 0953-5314
IS - 2
ER -