The effectiveness of measures to reduce the man-made greenhouse effect. The application of a climate-policy model

In this paper we briefly describe the characteristics and the performance of our 1-D Muenster Climate Model. This model, which is a scientifically-based parameterized simulation model, is used here primarily to help assess the effectiveness of various plausible policy options in mitigating the additional man-made greenhouse warming and the resulting sea level rise. For setting priorities it is important to assess the effectiveness of the various measures by which the greenhouse effect can be reduced. To this end we take a scenario business-as-usual as a reference case and study the mitigating effects of the following four packages of measures: The Copenhagen Agreements on CFC, HCFC, and halon reduction, the Tropical Forest Preservation Plan of the Climate Enquete-Commission of the German Parliament on CO₂ reduction, a detailed reduction scheme for energy-related CO₂, and a preliminary scheme for CH₄, CO, and N₂O reduction. The model results emphasize the importance of trace gases other than CO₂ in mitigating additional man-made greenhouse warming. According to our preliminary estimates, CH₄ could in the short term make a sizable contribution to the reduction of the greenhouse effect as could N₂O in the medium and long term (with a relatively long lifetime of 150 yr). -from Authors