TY - JOUR
T1 - The Effect of Solar Flux Variations and Trace Gas Emissions on Recent Trends in Stratospheric Ozone and Temperature
AU - Wuebbles, Donald J.
AU - Kinnison, Douglas E.
AU - Grant, Keith E.
AU - Lean, Judith
PY - 1991
Y1 - 1991
N2 - Trend analyses of satellite and ground-based observations clearly indicate that temperatures and ozone concentrations in the upper stratosphere are undergoing longterm changes. Variations in solar ultraviolet radiation during the 11-year solar cycle are influencing stratospheric temperatures and photochemistry from above. Forcings from below result from the increasing atmospheric concentrations of long-lived trace constituents, such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons and other halocarbons. Using the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere, we evaluate the influences of these external forcings on the middle atmosphere. Our calculations include recent estimates of the variations in solar ultraviolet radiation since 1974. Model results for the solar cycle effects on total ozone, upper stratospheric ozone and temperature are within the uncertainty (in some cases, large) range of observational data analyses. The model calculations including both solar variability and the effects of changing trace gas emissions can explain much of the observed trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature from 1979 to 1986.
AB - Trend analyses of satellite and ground-based observations clearly indicate that temperatures and ozone concentrations in the upper stratosphere are undergoing longterm changes. Variations in solar ultraviolet radiation during the 11-year solar cycle are influencing stratospheric temperatures and photochemistry from above. Forcings from below result from the increasing atmospheric concentrations of long-lived trace constituents, such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons and other halocarbons. Using the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere, we evaluate the influences of these external forcings on the middle atmosphere. Our calculations include recent estimates of the variations in solar ultraviolet radiation since 1974. Model results for the solar cycle effects on total ozone, upper stratospheric ozone and temperature are within the uncertainty (in some cases, large) range of observational data analyses. The model calculations including both solar variability and the effects of changing trace gas emissions can explain much of the observed trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature from 1979 to 1986.
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U2 - 10.5636/jgg.43.Supplement2_709
DO - 10.5636/jgg.43.Supplement2_709
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0026391580
SN - 0022-1392
VL - 43
SP - 709
EP - 718
JO - Journal of Geomagnetism and Geoelectricity
JF - Journal of Geomagnetism and Geoelectricity
ER -