The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Anjalika Nande; Justin Sheen; Emma L Walters; Brennan Klein; Matteo Chinazzi; Andrei Gheorghe; Ben Adlam; Julianna Shinnick; Maria Florencia Tejeda; Samuel V Scarpino; Alessandro Vespignani; Andrew Greenlee; Daniel Schneider; Michael Z. Levy; Alison L Hill

doi:10.1101/2020.10.27.20220897

The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Anjalika Nande, Justin Sheen, Emma L Walters, Brennan Klein, Matteo Chinazzi, Andrei Gheorghe, Ben Adlam, Julianna Shinnick, Maria Florencia Tejeda, Samuel V Scarpino, Alessandro Vespignani, Andrew Greenlee, Daniel Schneider, Michael Z. Levy, Alison L Hill

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	2274
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	12
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.27.20220897 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22521-5
State	Published - Dec 2021

Keywords

Coronavirus
COVID-19
severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Novel coronavirus
2019-nCoV
Pandemic

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Physics and Astronomy(all)
Chemistry(all)
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)

Online availability

10.1101/2020.10.27.20220897License: CC BY
10.1038/s41467-021-22521-5License: CC BY

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Nande, A., Sheen, J., Walters, E. L., Klein, B., Chinazzi, M., Gheorghe, A., Adlam, B., Shinnick, J., Tejeda, M. F., Scarpino, S. V., Vespignani, A., Greenlee, A., Schneider, D., Levy, M. Z., & Hill, A. L. (2021). The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Nature Communications, 12(1), Article 2274. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.27.20220897, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22521-5

Nande, A, Sheen, J, Walters, EL, Klein, B, Chinazzi, M, Gheorghe, A, Adlam, B, Shinnick, J, Tejeda, MF, Scarpino, SV, Vespignani, A, Greenlee, A, Schneider, D, Levy, MZ & Hill, AL 2021, 'The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2', Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 1, 2274. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.27.20220897, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22521-5

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abstract = "Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.",

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note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by grants from the US National Institutes of Health DP5OD019851 (A.L.H.), R01AI146129 (M.Z.L.). M.C. and A.V. acknowledge support from COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01 and from Google Cloud and Google Cloud Research Credits program to fund this project. M.Z.L. and A.H.G. acknowledge funding from the Andrew W Mellon Foundation. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

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AU - Gheorghe, Andrei

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AU - Shinnick, Julianna

AU - Tejeda, Maria Florencia

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AU - Vespignani, Alessandro

AU - Greenlee, Andrew

AU - Schneider, Daniel

AU - Levy, Michael Z.

AU - Hill, Alison L

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by grants from the US National Institutes of Health DP5OD019851 (A.L.H.), R01AI146129 (M.Z.L.). M.C. and A.V. acknowledge support from COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01 and from Google Cloud and Google Cloud Research Credits program to fund this project. M.Z.L. and A.H.G. acknowledge funding from the Andrew W Mellon Foundation. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).

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N2 - Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.

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The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

Keywords

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