The contributions of refined anthropogenic sources to PM_2.5 air quality and health impacts in China from 2020 to 2030, and associated policy benefits

In this study, we quantified the contributions of twenty-three emission sectors to ambient PM_2.5 concentrations and associated premature deaths in China from 2020 to 2030 using three key components: 1) a China-specific reduced-complexity air quality model, 2) high-resolution emission data for refined sectors, and 3) the exposure-response function (ERF) from the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). Our findings indicate that the implementation of end-of-pipe control policies and energy policies would lead to a reduction in the nationwide population-weighted PM_2.5 concentration from 41.2 μg/m³ to 26.3 μg/m³ between 2020 and 2030, with the largest contributor shifting from residential biomass burning to off-road mobile machinery during this period. Correspondingly, annual PM_2.5-related premature deaths are projected to decline from 1.8 million to 1.2 million, with the primary contributor to mortality shifting from residential biomass burning to coal-fired power plants. Notably, relative to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, these policies are expected to yield substantial co-benefits by 2030, including a reduction of 30.2 μg/m³ in population-weighted PM_2.5 concentration and the annual avoidance of 1.3 million premature deaths. Key policies driving these significant improvements in PM_2.5 levels and public health include: increasing the proportion of renewable energy in power generation; tightening emission standards and phasing out outdated coal-fired industrial boilers, cement plants, and iron and steel facilities; replacing residential coal consumption; controlling emissions from coal-fired heating plants; and upgrading emission standards for on-road diesel trucks and off-road mobile machinery.