The CFC greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the montreal protocol

Wilfrid Bach, Atul Jain

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Measurement campaigns have given concrete evidence of serious ozone destruction both over the Antarctic and the Arctic regions. This has spawned international action for the protection of the ozone layer, such as the Vienna Convention in 1985 and the Montreal Protocol in 1987. Current chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) reduction plans are, however, inadequate. Therefore, a strengthening of the Protocol's provisions is intended for 1990. The urgency of the Protocol's revision gains strength by the fact that the ozone depleting CFCs have also a strong greenhouse potential, thereby contributing significantly to climatic change. In this paper we consider five CFC production and emission scenarios (scenarios A‐E) that are possible under the Protocol's provisions, and two phase‐out scenarios by 2000 and 1996, respectively (scenarios F and G). The possible global mean surface temperature changes are calculated with the parameterized form of a one‐dimensional radiative‐convective model from 1986 to 2050 for the five CFCs (11, 12, 113, 114, and 115) controlled by the Protocol, eight additional CFCs, some of which could be used as possible substitutes, and the main greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O. The key findings are as follows. Without control, in 2050 the equilibrium global mean warming due to the five CFCs could rise sixteen fold above the 1985 vulue. The present Protocol provisions would still permit two to nine times higher equilibrium temperatures than today. A phase‐out by 2000 and 1996 would, over the period of 1986–2050, result in a reduction from the present equilibrium temperature change of 9 and 18 per cent, respectively. In addition, the other CFCs (e.g. CCl4, CH3CCl3, HFC‐22) may add significantly to global warming and thus should also be controlled. The high greenhouse warming potential provides another strong motive for the necessity of a phase‐out of all ozone‐depleting CFCs.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)439-450
Number of pages12
JournalInternational Journal of Climatology
Volume10
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1990
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • CFCs
  • Climate protection
  • Greenhouse potential
  • Montreal Protocol
  • Ozone depletion potential
  • Trace gases

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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