The continuous threat of foreign animal disease (FAD) is real and present for the U.S. swine industry. Because of this, the industry has developed plans to ensure business continuity during a FAD outbreak. A core aspect of these plans is regional standstill orders of swine movements to prevent disease spread following a FAD introduction. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of information about the impact of such practices on animal movements throughout the remaining swine marketing channel. This study utilizes a simplified gravity model, to understand the effects of standstill orders on individual states. The effect of each closure on the established trade patterns is determined by monitoring changes in a PPML regression coefficients of the model. Model validation compared the predicted impact of the closure of a terminal processing facility against a real-life closure dataset collected during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The analysis determined that both the population size and location of the closure affected the observed trade patterns. These findings suggest that using a regional stop movement order may complicate disease introduction preparation as each policy comes with its own potential outcome, shifting the geospatial distribution of area risk posed by these cull populations.
- gravity model
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