Testing the conditions for acquiring intuitive expertise in judgment: Evidence from a study of ncaa basketball tournament predictions

Robert Deloatch, Amir Marmarchi, Alex Kirlik

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Evidence from psychological studies of both novice and expert forecasters often show that people are overcondent in their ability to make accurate judgmental predictions about future events. In contrast, evidence from much cognitive engineering research appears to show that experienced performers are reasonably well adapted to their task environments and do not display many of the cognitive biases, such as overcondence, evident in the psychological literature. We present the results of a study providing evidence for both views, and more importantly, for the conditions under which experienced forecasters will exhibit high levels of calibration (little overcondence) versus poorer calibration and thus overcondence. In short, good calibration resulted when forecasters were required to draw solely upon high validity base-rate information gained through many years of repetitive exposures to a prediction task, yet displayed overcondence when they were also provided case-specic information with high salience and interest but little or no predictive validity.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, HFES 2013
Pages290-294
Number of pages5
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 13 2013
Event57th Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting - 2013, HFES 2013 - San Diego, CA, United States
Duration: Sep 30 2013Oct 4 2013

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
ISSN (Print)1071-1813

Other

Other57th Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting - 2013, HFES 2013
CountryUnited States
CitySan Diego, CA
Period9/30/1310/4/13

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Human Factors and Ergonomics

Cite this

Deloatch, R., Marmarchi, A., & Kirlik, A. (2013). Testing the conditions for acquiring intuitive expertise in judgment: Evidence from a study of ncaa basketball tournament predictions. In Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, HFES 2013 (pp. 290-294). (Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society). https://doi.org/10.1177/1541931213571064