Testing for parameter instability across different modeling frameworks

Francesco Calvori, Drew Creal, Siem Jan Koopman, André Lucas

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We develop a new parameter instability test that generalizes the seminal ARCHLagrange Multiplier test of Engle (1982) for a constant variance against the alternative of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to settings with nonlinear timevarying parameters and non-Gaussian distributions. We investigate the performance of the new test relative to both classic and recently proposed parameter instability tests, including tests against structural breaks and parameter-driven dynamics. We find that the recent test of Müller and Petalas (2010) performs best across a wide range of alternatives, particularly if parameter instability is slow. For time-varying parameters that exhibitmoremean reversion, our new test has higher power. We provide an application to a heavily unbalanced panel of losses given default for US corporations from 1982 to 2010 and provide evidence of significant parameter instability in the parameters of a static beta distributedmodel.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)223-246
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of Financial Econometrics
Volume15
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Credit risk
  • Generalized autoregressive score model
  • Observation-driven and parameterdriven models
  • Regime switching
  • Structural breaks
  • Time-varying parameters

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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