Teardowns and demolitions in Chicago, 2000-2014: A conditionally parametric approach

Conditionally parametric (CPAR) Probit models are used to estimate the probability that a demolition permit was issued for residential properties in Chicago for 2000-2014. The approach has significant advantages when analyzing demolition permits because the coefficients vary across locations where demolition is followed by construction of a new building and locations where demolition leads to a vacant lot. In prime areas of the city where demolition permits are associated with teardowns, the results indicate that permits are more likely to be issued for small homes on large lots. In contrast, homes on small lots are more likely to be demolished in low-priced areas of the city, and building area has less influence on the demolition probability. All estimated coefficients vary substantially across the sample area, suggesting that a simple, global parametric specification is not sufficient for modeling demolitions in a large city such as Chicago.