Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus and an endemic state

Alexei V Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov, Tong Wang, Ahmed Elbanna, George N Wong, Nigel Goldenfeld

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic in broad agreement with empirical data. Our model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of the long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to the endemic state.
Original languageEnglish (US)
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Number of pages14
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2 2021

Publication series

NamemedRxiv
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press

Keywords

  • Novel coronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
  • 2019-nCoV
  • Pandemic

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