Stochastic modeling of deterioration in buildings and civil infrastructure

Infrastructure systems deteriorate while in service due to routine use and exposure to extreme conditions (e.g., earthquakes and corrosive environment). Deterioration is a serious concern as it can considerably reduce the structural capacity and consequently the reliability and service life of systems. Moreover, deterioration is a highly uncertain process and is often invisible. This chapter first presents the stochastic modeling of a general deterioration process. Then, as an illustration, the chapter conducts a stochastic analysis of the structural deterioration process of a typical single-column reinforced concrete (RC) highway bridge that is subject to deterioration due to corrosion and earthquakes. In particular, the illustration considers the deterioration of the bridge column due to loss of lateral stiffness, low-cycle fatigue of longitudinal reinforcement and loss of cross-sectional area of reinforcing steel. The presented method is general and can be applied to analyze other structural systems experiencing different deterioration mechanisms.