### Abstract

Different formulations have been proposed to estimate the reliability of engineering systems according to their design specification. However, the as-built state might differ from the design specification, and aging and deterioration are affecting the performance of the systems over time. Physics-based fragility estimates that are explicitly developed as functions of state variables defining the state of the system can be coupled with state-dependent models for the deterioration and results from Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). State-of-the-art state-dependent models for the deterioration of the state variables are able to incorporate the possible interaction between different deterioration processes and can be used as inputs in the physics-based fragilities to estimate the future reliability of the system. SHM can be used to assess the current state of the system as well as to calibrate the state-dependent deterioration models, which can then be used to better predict the performance of the system at future times. Current state-dependent models are defined in terms of the finite change in the state variables in the unit of time of a chosen discretization for the time domain. This makes the model parameters discretization-dependent and makes the simulation and calibration processes time-consuming and computationally expensive. In this paper, we propose a novel formulation that uses a system of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) for modeling the change in the state variables of the system. Using this formulation, the model parameters do not depend on the chosen discretization in the time domain. In addition, it is possible to use the results from stochastic calculus and the properties of diffusion processes to speed up the simulation and calibration of the models

Original language | English (US) |
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Title of host publication | Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering |

Subtitle of host publication | Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018 |

Editors | Dan M. Frangopol, Robby Caspeele, Luc Taerwe |

Publisher | CRC Press/Balkema |

Pages | 1663-1670 |

Number of pages | 8 |

ISBN (Print) | 9781138626331 |

State | Published - Jan 1 2019 |

Event | 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018 - Ghent, Belgium Duration: Oct 28 2018 → Oct 31 2018 |

### Publication series

Name | Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018 |
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### Conference

Conference | 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018 |
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Country | Belgium |

City | Ghent |

Period | 10/28/18 → 10/31/18 |

### Fingerprint

### ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Civil and Structural Engineering
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

### Cite this

*Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018*(pp. 1663-1670). (Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018). CRC Press/Balkema.

**Stochastic differential equations for modeling deterioration of engineering systems and calibration based on structural health monitoring data.** / Iannacone, L.; Gardoni, Paolo.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

*Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018.*Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018, CRC Press/Balkema, pp. 1663-1670, 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018, Ghent, Belgium, 10/28/18.

}

TY - GEN

T1 - Stochastic differential equations for modeling deterioration of engineering systems and calibration based on structural health monitoring data

AU - Iannacone, L.

AU - Gardoni, Paolo

PY - 2019/1/1

Y1 - 2019/1/1

N2 - Different formulations have been proposed to estimate the reliability of engineering systems according to their design specification. However, the as-built state might differ from the design specification, and aging and deterioration are affecting the performance of the systems over time. Physics-based fragility estimates that are explicitly developed as functions of state variables defining the state of the system can be coupled with state-dependent models for the deterioration and results from Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). State-of-the-art state-dependent models for the deterioration of the state variables are able to incorporate the possible interaction between different deterioration processes and can be used as inputs in the physics-based fragilities to estimate the future reliability of the system. SHM can be used to assess the current state of the system as well as to calibrate the state-dependent deterioration models, which can then be used to better predict the performance of the system at future times. Current state-dependent models are defined in terms of the finite change in the state variables in the unit of time of a chosen discretization for the time domain. This makes the model parameters discretization-dependent and makes the simulation and calibration processes time-consuming and computationally expensive. In this paper, we propose a novel formulation that uses a system of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) for modeling the change in the state variables of the system. Using this formulation, the model parameters do not depend on the chosen discretization in the time domain. In addition, it is possible to use the results from stochastic calculus and the properties of diffusion processes to speed up the simulation and calibration of the models

AB - Different formulations have been proposed to estimate the reliability of engineering systems according to their design specification. However, the as-built state might differ from the design specification, and aging and deterioration are affecting the performance of the systems over time. Physics-based fragility estimates that are explicitly developed as functions of state variables defining the state of the system can be coupled with state-dependent models for the deterioration and results from Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). State-of-the-art state-dependent models for the deterioration of the state variables are able to incorporate the possible interaction between different deterioration processes and can be used as inputs in the physics-based fragilities to estimate the future reliability of the system. SHM can be used to assess the current state of the system as well as to calibrate the state-dependent deterioration models, which can then be used to better predict the performance of the system at future times. Current state-dependent models are defined in terms of the finite change in the state variables in the unit of time of a chosen discretization for the time domain. This makes the model parameters discretization-dependent and makes the simulation and calibration processes time-consuming and computationally expensive. In this paper, we propose a novel formulation that uses a system of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) for modeling the change in the state variables of the system. Using this formulation, the model parameters do not depend on the chosen discretization in the time domain. In addition, it is possible to use the results from stochastic calculus and the properties of diffusion processes to speed up the simulation and calibration of the models

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85063930230&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85063930230&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85063930230

SN - 9781138626331

T3 - Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018

SP - 1663

EP - 1670

BT - Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering

A2 - Frangopol, Dan M.

A2 - Caspeele, Robby

A2 - Taerwe, Luc

PB - CRC Press/Balkema

ER -