Status and future scenarios for China's energy-related GHG emissions

As energy is the major source of GHG emissions, the assessment of the present situation and future patterns of GHG emissions from energy activities is carried out for China. The OECD/IPCC methodology is adopted to estimate emissions, while the LEAP model as the tool of energy supply and demand prediction. The investigation is conducted into the current energy GHG emissions, and two scenarios are assumed for future prediction, namely BAU scenario and Optimistic scenario, with the time horizon as 1990-2000, 2000-2010, 2010-2020. BAU scenario attempts to reflect as much as possible the governmental policy and plan on economic growth, economic structure, population control and energy saving, describing the possible emissions pattern in the future. Under BAU scenario, in the year 2020, CO₂ emissions from energy source would be 2.5 times as much as in 1990. Optimistic scenario pays more attention to industrial energy efficiency, coal processing, biomass use and alternative energy, and with the assumption of the maximum enhancement in GHG control, a reduction of 20% of CO₂ emissions in 2020 is estimated, compared with BAU scenario.