Status and future scenarios for China's energy-related GHG emissions

Lu Yongqi, Hao Jiming, Liu Binjiang

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review


As energy is the major source of GHG emissions, the assessment of the present situation and future patterns of GHG emissions from energy activities is carried out for China. The OECD/IPCC methodology is adopted to estimate emissions, while the LEAP model as the tool of energy supply and demand prediction. The investigation is conducted into the current energy GHG emissions, and two scenarios are assumed for future prediction, namely BAU scenario and Optimistic scenario, with the time horizon as 1990-2000, 2000-2010, 2010-2020. BAU scenario attempts to reflect as much as possible the governmental policy and plan on economic growth, economic structure, population control and energy saving, describing the possible emissions pattern in the future. Under BAU scenario, in the year 2020, CO2 emissions from energy source would be 2.5 times as much as in 1990. Optimistic scenario pays more attention to industrial energy efficiency, coal processing, biomass use and alternative energy, and with the assumption of the maximum enhancement in GHG control, a reduction of 20% of CO2 emissions in 2020 is estimated, compared with BAU scenario.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Number of pages10
StatePublished - 1998
Externally publishedYes
EventProceedings of the 1998 6th International Conference on Air Pollution - Genoa, Italy
Duration: Sep 28 1998Sep 30 1998


OtherProceedings of the 1998 6th International Conference on Air Pollution
CityGenoa, Italy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pollution


Dive into the research topics of 'Status and future scenarios for China's energy-related GHG emissions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this