Spatio-temporal socio-technical risk analysis methodology: An application in emergency response

Ha Bui, Justin Pence, Zahra Mohaghegh, Seyed Reihani, Ernie Kee

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

This paper reports on the status of on-going research regarding the development of a Spatio-Temporal Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (ST-SoTeRiA) methodology for Emergency Response (ER) modeling. ST-SoTeRiA is an approach to explicitly incorporate spatial and temporal dimensions, while connected with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) logic, into the simulation of socio-technical failure mechanisms. The probabilities required for executing PRA are estimated by running a spatiotemporal platform that integrates deterministic simulation methods with probabilistic techniques. In this paper, a case study for fire ER demonstrates one of the building blocks of the ST-SoTeRiA methodology in which Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) technique is combined with physical hazard progression simulation in a shared Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial platform, as an input to PRA scenarios. A multi-method coupling between physical progression models and human response models in a spatio-temporal platform is essential to: (i) better characterize dynamic behaviors in ER, given location-specific hazards, (ii) better account for uncertainty, and (iii) better inform decision making in ER contexts.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationInternational Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017
PublisherAmerican Nuclear Society
Pages949-958
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9781510851801
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017
Event2017 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017 - Pittsburgh, United States
Duration: Sep 24 2017Sep 28 2017

Publication series

NameInternational Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017
Volume2

Other

Other2017 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017
CountryUnited States
CityPittsburgh
Period9/24/179/28/17

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Nuclear Energy and Engineering

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