TY - GEN
T1 - Spatio-temporal socio-technical risk analysis methodology
T2 - 2017 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017
AU - Bui, Ha
AU - Pence, Justin
AU - Mohaghegh, Zahra
AU - Reihani, Seyed
AU - Kee, Ernie
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 by American Nuclear Society. All rights reserved.
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - This paper reports on the status of on-going research regarding the development of a Spatio-Temporal Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (ST-SoTeRiA) methodology for Emergency Response (ER) modeling. ST-SoTeRiA is an approach to explicitly incorporate spatial and temporal dimensions, while connected with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) logic, into the simulation of socio-technical failure mechanisms. The probabilities required for executing PRA are estimated by running a spatiotemporal platform that integrates deterministic simulation methods with probabilistic techniques. In this paper, a case study for fire ER demonstrates one of the building blocks of the ST-SoTeRiA methodology in which Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) technique is combined with physical hazard progression simulation in a shared Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial platform, as an input to PRA scenarios. A multi-method coupling between physical progression models and human response models in a spatio-temporal platform is essential to: (i) better characterize dynamic behaviors in ER, given location-specific hazards, (ii) better account for uncertainty, and (iii) better inform decision making in ER contexts.
AB - This paper reports on the status of on-going research regarding the development of a Spatio-Temporal Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (ST-SoTeRiA) methodology for Emergency Response (ER) modeling. ST-SoTeRiA is an approach to explicitly incorporate spatial and temporal dimensions, while connected with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) logic, into the simulation of socio-technical failure mechanisms. The probabilities required for executing PRA are estimated by running a spatiotemporal platform that integrates deterministic simulation methods with probabilistic techniques. In this paper, a case study for fire ER demonstrates one of the building blocks of the ST-SoTeRiA methodology in which Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) technique is combined with physical hazard progression simulation in a shared Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial platform, as an input to PRA scenarios. A multi-method coupling between physical progression models and human response models in a spatio-temporal platform is essential to: (i) better characterize dynamic behaviors in ER, given location-specific hazards, (ii) better account for uncertainty, and (iii) better inform decision making in ER contexts.
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M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85047800165
T3 - International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017
SP - 949
EP - 958
BT - International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017
PB - American Nuclear Society
Y2 - 24 September 2017 through 28 September 2017
ER -