Spatio-temporal socio-technical risk analysis methodology: An application in emergency response

This paper reports on the status of on-going research regarding the development of a Spatio-Temporal Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (ST-SoTeRiA) methodology for Emergency Response (ER) modeling. ST-SoTeRiA is an approach to explicitly incorporate spatial and temporal dimensions, while connected with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) logic, into the simulation of socio-technical failure mechanisms. The probabilities required for executing PRA are estimated by running a spatiotemporal platform that integrates deterministic simulation methods with probabilistic techniques. In this paper, a case study for fire ER demonstrates one of the building blocks of the ST-SoTeRiA methodology in which Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) technique is combined with physical hazard progression simulation in a shared Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial platform, as an input to PRA scenarios. A multi-method coupling between physical progression models and human response models in a spatio-temporal platform is essential to: (i) better characterize dynamic behaviors in ER, given location-specific hazards, (ii) better account for uncertainty, and (iii) better inform decision making in ER contexts.