TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatial and temporal dynamics of animals and the host-density threshold in epizootiology
AU - Onstad, David W.
AU - Maddox, Joseph V.
AU - Cox, Donna J.
AU - Kornkven, Edward A.
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank R. Ellson, R. Herendeen, U. Kitron, L. Smarr, and R. Smith for their comments on an early draft. This work was partially supported by NCSA-PRB Grant BSR8700002N and utilized the CRAY X-MP/48 at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois. This paper is a contribution of the Illinois Natural History Survey and Project 12-313 of the Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station, College of Agriculture, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
PY - 1990/1
Y1 - 1990/1
N2 - The concept of a host-density threshold, commonly discussed in theoretical epidemiology and epizootiology, is based on simple theoretical models and several vague definitions. We computed a more complex model on a supercomputer to study the temporal and spatial dynamics of an insect population and its microsporidian disease. Results demonstrated that the threshold is sensitive to initial prevalence of the disease, intragenerational temporal dynamics, and spatial dynamics of the host. The threshold also depends on whether pathogen persistence, an increase in prevalence, an increase in density of infected hosts, or an epidemic is being predicted. To improve epizootiological theory, models with greater realism must be studied and the concept must include general temporal and spatial scales.
AB - The concept of a host-density threshold, commonly discussed in theoretical epidemiology and epizootiology, is based on simple theoretical models and several vague definitions. We computed a more complex model on a supercomputer to study the temporal and spatial dynamics of an insect population and its microsporidian disease. Results demonstrated that the threshold is sensitive to initial prevalence of the disease, intragenerational temporal dynamics, and spatial dynamics of the host. The threshold also depends on whether pathogen persistence, an increase in prevalence, an increase in density of infected hosts, or an epidemic is being predicted. To improve epizootiological theory, models with greater realism must be studied and the concept must include general temporal and spatial scales.
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U2 - 10.1016/0022-2011(90)90035-5
DO - 10.1016/0022-2011(90)90035-5
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0025019771
SN - 0022-2011
VL - 55
SP - 76
EP - 84
JO - Journal of Invertebrate Pathology
JF - Journal of Invertebrate Pathology
IS - 1
ER -