TY - JOUR
T1 - Something went wrong on the way to the courthouse
AU - Hyman, David A.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - Almost without exception, law professors dismissed the possibility that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) might be unconstitutional - but something went wrong on the way to the courthouse. What explains the epic failure of law professors to accurately predict how Article 3 judges would approach the case? This essay identifies three distinct but complementary factors that might help explain the observed failure. First, instead of conducting a neutral assessment of the actual probabilities, law professors engaged in motivated reasoning, based on their preexisting political and policy preferences. Second, the psychology of constitutional law professors led them to massively overstate the probability of success and suppress any misgivings or cautious hedging. Third, once it became clear that the PPACA was in serious jeopardy, our nation's law professors decided to pursue politics by other means, and organized the academic equivalent of a vigilance committee.
AB - Almost without exception, law professors dismissed the possibility that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) might be unconstitutional - but something went wrong on the way to the courthouse. What explains the epic failure of law professors to accurately predict how Article 3 judges would approach the case? This essay identifies three distinct but complementary factors that might help explain the observed failure. First, instead of conducting a neutral assessment of the actual probabilities, law professors engaged in motivated reasoning, based on their preexisting political and policy preferences. Second, the psychology of constitutional law professors led them to massively overstate the probability of success and suppress any misgivings or cautious hedging. Third, once it became clear that the PPACA was in serious jeopardy, our nation's law professors decided to pursue politics by other means, and organized the academic equivalent of a vigilance committee.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84877839036&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84877839036&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1215/03616878-1966234
DO - 10.1215/03616878-1966234
M3 - Article
C2 - 23262776
AN - SCOPUS:84877839036
SN - 0361-6878
VL - 38
SP - 243
EP - 253
JO - Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law
JF - Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law
IS - 2
ER -