Simulating the Economic Impacts of a Hypothetical Bio-Terrorist Attack: A Sports Stadium Case

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, we suggest an analytical framework to study the full economic impacts of hypothetical bio-terrorist attacks on various targets. We particularly emphasize the importance of estimating economic impacts that occur through systems and behavior linkages beyond direct losses. Second, we provide a case study that analyzes the economic impacts of an attack on a major league sports stadium. The estimated loss from the stadium attack ranges from $62 billion to $73 billion. The largest loss comes from the loss of lives, followed by the reduced demand for sports stadium visits. We demonstrate that available off-the-shelf impact models (in this case IMPLAN) can be utilized, via the development of detailed but plausible scenarios grounded in available data and literature.