Severe population collapses and species extinctions in multihost epidemic dynamics

Sergei Maslov, Kim Sneppen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Most infectious diseases, including more than half of known human pathogens, are not restricted to just one host, yet much of the mathematical modeling of infections has been limited to a single species. We investigate consequences of a single epidemic propagating in multiple species and compare and contrast it with the endemic steady state of the disease. We use the two-species susceptible-infected-recovered model to calculate the severity of postepidemic collapses in populations of two-host species as a function of their initial population sizes, the times individuals remain infectious, and the matrix of infection rates. We derive the criteria for a very large, extinction-level, population collapse in one or both of the species. The main conclusion of our study is that a single epidemic could drive a species with high mortality rate to local or even global extinction provided that it is coinfected with an abundant species. Such collapse-driven extinctions depend on factors different than those in the endemic steady state of the disease.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number022412
JournalPhysical Review E
Volume96
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 22 2017

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Condensed Matter Physics

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Severe population collapses and species extinctions in multihost epidemic dynamics'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this