Seismic estimation of casualties and direct economic loss to Byblos city: a contribution to the ‘100 resilient cities’ strategy

Byblos, a Lebanese City, a UNESCO world heritage and one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities, is a member of the 100 Resilient Cities project. To help mitigate its stresses and chocks, Byblos is implementing its resilience strategy enclosing the five pillars: Connected, Resourceful, Peaceful, Cultural, and Thriving. Since the earthquake threat is not selected in this strategy, this study proposes to complement the 100 RC efforts and aims to urge Byblos Municipality authorities and governmental institutions to act based on concrete results offered, to provide emergency, prevention and recovery plans for the city and to enhance the civil protection. Therefore, first, we present the Byblos resilience strategy, identifying the city stresses and shocks, discussing its seismic threat and presenting complementary measures. Second, we model structural building damage, casualties, and buildings direct economic damage, including structural and nonstructural damage. Finally, results and recommendations are offered for an improved resilience strategy.