Return dynamics when persistence is unobservable

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper proposes a new theory of the sources of time-varying second (and higher) moments in financial time series. The key idea is that fully rational agents must infer the stochastic degree of persistence of fundamental shocks. Endogenous changes in their uncertainty determine the evolution of conditional moments of returns. The model accounts for the principal observed features of volatility dynamics and implies some new ones. Most strikingly, it implies a relationship between ex post trends, or momentum, and changes in volatility.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)415-445
Number of pages31
JournalMathematical Finance
Issue number4
StatePublished - Oct 2001
Externally publishedYes


  • Filtering
  • Stochastic volatility
  • Variable persistence

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Applied Mathematics


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