TY - JOUR
T1 - Real-Time SWMF at CCMC
T2 - Assessing the Dst Output From Continuous Operational Simulations
AU - Liemohn, Mike
AU - Ganushkina, Natalia Yu
AU - De Zeeuw, Darren L.
AU - Rastaetter, Lutz
AU - Kuznetsova, Maria
AU - Welling, Daniel T.
AU - Toth, Gabor
AU - Ilie, Raluca
AU - Gombosi, Tamas I.
AU - van der Holst, Bart
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank the U.S. government for sponsoring this research, in particular research grants from NASA (NNX11AO60G, NNX14AC02G, NNX16AG66G, NNX17AI48G, and NNX17AB87G) and NSF (AGS-1102863 and AGS-1414517). The part of the research done by M. Liemohn, N. Ganushkina, and Bart van der Holst has received funding from the European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement 637302 PROGRESS. The simulations were conducted on the computing facilities at NASA GSFC, and the run output is freely available on their website (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/SWMFpred.cgi) and the CCMC iSWA interactive tool (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/). The real-time solar wind data were provided by NOAA SWPC (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind). The authors thank the World Data Center in Kyoto, Japan, for the real-time Dst values (http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_realtime/presentmonth/index.html).
Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank the U.S. government for sponsoring this research, in particular research grants from NASA (NNX11AO60G, NNX14AC02G, NNX16AG66G, NNX17AI48G, and NNX17AB87G) and NSF (AGS-1102863 and AGS-1414517). The part of the research done by M. Liemohn, N. Ganushkina, and Bart van der Holst has received funding from the European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement 637302 PROGRESS. The simulations were conducted on the computing facilities at NASA GSFC, and the run output is freely available on their website (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa. gov/cgi-bin/SWMFpred.cgi) and the CCMC iSWA interactive tool (https:// ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/). The real- time solar wind data were provided by NOAA SWPC (http://www.swpc.noaa. gov/products/real-time-solar-wind). The authors thank the World Data Center in Kyoto, Japan, for the real-time Dst values (http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/ dst_realtime/presentmonth/index. html).
Publisher Copyright:
©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2018/10
Y1 - 2018/10
N2 - The ground-based magnetometer index of Dst is a commonly used measure of near-Earth current systems, in particular the storm time inner magnetospheric current systems. The ability of a large-scale, physics-based model to reproduce, or even predict, this index is therefore a tangible measure of the overall validity of the code for space weather research and space weather operational usage. Experimental real-time simulations of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) are conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Presently, two configurations of the SWMF are running in real time at CCMC, both focusing on the geospace modules, using the Block Adaptive Tree Solar wind-type Roe Upwind Solver magnetohydrodynamic model, the Ridley Ionosphere Model, and with and without the Rice Convection Model. While both have been running for several years, nearly continuous results are available since April 2015. A 27-month interval through July 2017 is used for a quantitative assessment of Dst from the model output compared against the Kyoto real-time Dst. Quantitative measures are presented to assess the goodness of fit including contingency tables and a receiver operating characteristic curve. It is shown that the SWMF run with the inner magnetosphere model is much better at reproducing storm time values, with a correlation coefficient of 0.69, a prediction efficiency of 0.41, and Heidke skill score of 0.57 (for a −50-nT threshold). A comparison of real-time runs with and without the inner magnetospheric drift physics model reveals that nearly all of the storm time Dst signature is from current systems related to kinetic processes on closed magnetic field lines.
AB - The ground-based magnetometer index of Dst is a commonly used measure of near-Earth current systems, in particular the storm time inner magnetospheric current systems. The ability of a large-scale, physics-based model to reproduce, or even predict, this index is therefore a tangible measure of the overall validity of the code for space weather research and space weather operational usage. Experimental real-time simulations of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) are conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Presently, two configurations of the SWMF are running in real time at CCMC, both focusing on the geospace modules, using the Block Adaptive Tree Solar wind-type Roe Upwind Solver magnetohydrodynamic model, the Ridley Ionosphere Model, and with and without the Rice Convection Model. While both have been running for several years, nearly continuous results are available since April 2015. A 27-month interval through July 2017 is used for a quantitative assessment of Dst from the model output compared against the Kyoto real-time Dst. Quantitative measures are presented to assess the goodness of fit including contingency tables and a receiver operating characteristic curve. It is shown that the SWMF run with the inner magnetosphere model is much better at reproducing storm time values, with a correlation coefficient of 0.69, a prediction efficiency of 0.41, and Heidke skill score of 0.57 (for a −50-nT threshold). A comparison of real-time runs with and without the inner magnetospheric drift physics model reveals that nearly all of the storm time Dst signature is from current systems related to kinetic processes on closed magnetic field lines.
KW - nowcasting
KW - space weather modeling
KW - storm simulations
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U2 - 10.1029/2018SW001953
DO - 10.1029/2018SW001953
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85055032606
SN - 1542-7390
VL - 16
SP - 1583
EP - 1603
JO - Space Weather
JF - Space Weather
IS - 10
ER -