TY - JOUR
T1 - Quantitative Analysis of Changes in Freight Train Derailment Causes and Rates
AU - Wang, Brandon Z.
AU - Barkan, Christopher P.L.
AU - Rapik Saat, M.
N1 - Funding Information:
Support for this research was provided by the Association of American Railroads, BNSF Railway, and the National University Rail Center, a US DOT Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (OST-R) Tier 1 University Transportation Center. This paper is solely the work of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the sponsors. The authors thank Samantha Chadwick and Chen-Yu Lin for providing insights and discussion of this study, and the reviewers for their helpful comments that helped improve the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
PY - 2020/11/1
Y1 - 2020/11/1
N2 - The mainline freight train derailment rate of major railroads in the United States declined 49% from 2006 to 2015. Nevertheless, derailments remain the leading cause of major railroad accidents. Identification and quantification of the types of train accidents, the trackage where they occur, and the causes having the greatest effect on train safety and risk is critical to determine the most effective strategies for further improvement. Federal Railroad Administration data were used to quantify factors contributing to the declining accident trend. Most derailment causes declined with the greatest reductions in broken rails and welds, track geometry, and other axle and journal defects. Of the few causes that increased, extreme weather was the largest. An updated statistical model of the relationship between track class, traffic density, method of operation, and derailment rate is also developed. Derailments declined uniformly with respect to all combinations of the three factors, indicating a broad general decline across the network. The new model also provides up-to-date derailment rate estimates for use in risk analysis of railroad freight and hazardous materials transportation.
AB - The mainline freight train derailment rate of major railroads in the United States declined 49% from 2006 to 2015. Nevertheless, derailments remain the leading cause of major railroad accidents. Identification and quantification of the types of train accidents, the trackage where they occur, and the causes having the greatest effect on train safety and risk is critical to determine the most effective strategies for further improvement. Federal Railroad Administration data were used to quantify factors contributing to the declining accident trend. Most derailment causes declined with the greatest reductions in broken rails and welds, track geometry, and other axle and journal defects. Of the few causes that increased, extreme weather was the largest. An updated statistical model of the relationship between track class, traffic density, method of operation, and derailment rate is also developed. Derailments declined uniformly with respect to all combinations of the three factors, indicating a broad general decline across the network. The new model also provides up-to-date derailment rate estimates for use in risk analysis of railroad freight and hazardous materials transportation.
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U2 - 10.1061/JTEPBS.0000453
DO - 10.1061/JTEPBS.0000453
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85091527332
VL - 146
JO - Journal of Transportation Engineering Part A: Systems
JF - Journal of Transportation Engineering Part A: Systems
SN - 2473-2907
IS - 11
M1 - 04020127
ER -