Cellulosic biofuels from non-food feedstocks, while appealing, continue to encounter uncertainty about their induced land use change (ILUC) effects, net greenhouse gas (GHG) saving potential and their economic costs. We analyse the implications of multiple uncertainties along the biofuel supply chain from feedstock yields, land availability for production to conversion to fuel in the refinery on these outcomes. We find that compared to corn ethanol, cellulosic biofuels have a substantially smaller and less uncertain ILUC-related GHG intensity and lead to larger GHG savings at lower welfare costs of abatement, indicating the potential to make robust and substantial contributions to cost-effective climate change mitigation.
Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberjbad036
Pages (from-to)1659-1684
Number of pages26
JournalEuropean Review of Agricultural Economics
Issue number5
Early online dateNov 6 2023
StatePublished - Dec 1 2023


  • GHG savings
  • ILUC related GHG intensity
  • biofuel supply chain
  • costs of abatement
  • land use change

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)


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