Quantifying proximity, confinement, and interventions in disease outbreaks: a decision support framework for air-transported pathogens

Tami C. Bond, Angela Bosco-Lauth, Delphine K. Farmer, Paul W. Francisco, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Kristen M. Fedak, Jay M. Ham, Shantanu H. Jathar, Sue VandeWoude

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The inability to communicate how infectious diseases are transmitted in human environments has triggered avoidance of interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. We define a metric, Effective ReBreathed Volume (ERBV), that encapsulates how infectious pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, transport in air. ERBV separates environmental transport from other factors in the chain of infection, allowing quantitative comparisons among situations. Particle size affects transport, removal onto surfaces, and elimination by mitigation measures, so ERBV is presented for a range of exhaled particle diameters: 1, 10, and 100 m. Pathogen transport depends on both proximity and confinement. If interpersonal distancing of 2 m is maintained, then confinement, not proximity, dominates rebreathing after 10-15 min in enclosed spaces for all but 100 m particles. We analyze strategies to reduce this confinement effect. Ventilation and filtration reduce person-To-person transport of 1 m particles (ERBV1) by 13-85% in residential and office situations. Deposition to surfaces competes with intentional removal for 10 and 100 m particles, so the same interventions reduce ERBV10 by only 3-50%, and ERBV100 is unaffected. Prior knowledge of size-dependent ERBV would help identify transmission modes and effective interventions. This framework supports mitigation decisions in emerging situations, even before other infectious parameters are known.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2890-2898
Number of pages9
JournalEnvironmental Science & Technology
Volume55
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2 2021

Keywords

  • aerosol
  • COVID-19
  • ventilation
  • airborne disease
  • indoor air

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Chemistry
  • Environmental Chemistry

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