TY - JOUR
T1 - Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios
AU - Xu, Peng
AU - Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria
AU - Rood, Mark J.
AU - Luan, Shengji
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors wish to express their gratitude to the China Scholarship Council (201606010231) for funding the visiting venture that generated this paper. This work was financially supported by the International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China (2012DFG92020).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2017/12/31
Y1 - 2017/12/31
N2 - China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH3) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1 km × 1 km gridded NH3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH3 emissions. The total NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3 Tg NH3·yr− 1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6 Tg NH3·yr− 1), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3 Tg·yr− 1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr− 1. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9 Tg NH3·yr− 1 (11.5–16.3 Tg NH3·yr− 1). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9–37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels.
AB - China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH3) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1 km × 1 km gridded NH3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH3 emissions. The total NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3 Tg NH3·yr− 1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6 Tg NH3·yr− 1), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3 Tg·yr− 1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr− 1. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9 Tg NH3·yr− 1 (11.5–16.3 Tg NH3·yr− 1). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9–37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels.
KW - Ammonia emissions
KW - Livestock manure
KW - Mitigation scenarios
KW - Policies analysis
KW - Uncertainty
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U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.258
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.258
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85021632247
VL - 607-608
SP - 78
EP - 86
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
SN - 0048-9697
ER -