Projections of NH₃ emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios

China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH₃) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH₃ emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH₃ emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1 km × 1 km gridded NH₃ emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH₃ emissions. The total NH₃ emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3 Tg NH₃·yr^− 1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6 Tg NH₃·yr^− 1), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH₃ emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3 Tg·yr^− 1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr^− 1. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH₃ emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9 Tg NH₃·yr^− 1 (11.5–16.3 Tg NH₃·yr^− 1). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9–37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH₃ emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH₃ emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels.