Projecting future climate change: Implications of carbon cycle model intercomparisons

The range of responses of alternate detailed models for the ocean and biosphere components of the global carbon cycle, cataloged in model intercomparison studies, are simulated by a reduced form Earth system model employing a range of model parameters. The reduced form model, parameterized in this way, allows the integration of these components of the carbon cycle with an energy balance climate model with a prescribed range of climate sensitivity. We use this model to construct ranges of: (1) past carbon badgets given past CO₂ concentrations, fossil carbon emissions, and temperature records, (2) future CO₂ concentrations and temperature for given emission scenarios, and (3) CO₂ emissions and temperature for given trajectories of future CO₂ concentrations leading to constant levels within the next several centuries. Carbon cycle is an additional contributor to uncertainty in climate projections that is calculated to expand the range of projected global temperature beyond that reported in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment.