Probability of introducing foot and mouth disease into the United States via live animal importation

G. Y. Miller, J. Ming, I. Williams, R. Gorvett

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Foot and mouth disease (FMD) continues to be a disease of major concern for the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and livestock industries. Foot and mouth disease virus is a high-consequence pathogen for the United States (USA). Live animal trade is a major risk factor for introduction of FMD into a country. This research estimates the probability of FMD being introduced into the USA via the legal importation of livestock. This probability is calculated by considering the potential introduction of FMD from each country from which the USA imports live animals. The total probability of introduction into the USA of FMD from imported livestock is estimated to be 0.415% per year, which is equivalent to one introduction every 241 years. In addition, to provide a basis for evaluating the significance of risk management techniques and expenditures, the sensitivity of the above result to changes in various risk parameter assumptions is determined.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)777-787
Number of pages11
JournalOIE Revue Scientifique et Technique
Issue number3
StatePublished - Dec 2012


  • Foot and mouth disease
  • Import
  • Livestock
  • Probability
  • Risk
  • United States

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Animal Science and Zoology


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