Probabilistic demand models and fragility estimates for offshore wind turbine support structures

M. Mardfekri, P. Gardoni, J. M. Roesset

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

A probabilistic model is developed to predict the deformation demand on wind turbine support structures due to the operation of the turbine, and wind and wave loading. An existing deterministic model is corrected by adding a correction term to capture the inherent bias and model error arising from an inaccurate model form or missing variables. The correction term and the model error are assessed using data obtained from detailed three dimensional nonlinear finite element analyses of a set of wind turbine systems considering different design parameters. Fragility of the support structure is then defined as a conditional probability of not meeting a specified deformation performance level. Existing simplified methods for the analysis of the support structure and foundation of wind turbines have limitations in the modeling of the nonlinear behavior of the foundations. Three dimensional nonlinear finite element analyses provide a more rigorous and accurate modeling of the soil mass, pile and their interaction, but they are computationally expensive and time consuming. The proposed probabilistic demand model provides an accurate framework for predicting the deformation of support structure properly accounting for the underlying uncertainties, and for estimating the vulnerability of the wind turbine support structure without the need of conducting complicated nonlinear finite element analyses.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationVulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk
Subtitle of host publicationAnalysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences
Pages633-640
Number of pages8
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 13 2011
Externally publishedYes
EventInternational Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2011 and the International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2011 - Hyattsville, MD, United States
Duration: Apr 11 2011Apr 13 2011

Publication series

NameVulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences

Other

OtherInternational Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2011 and the International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2011
CountryUnited States
CityHyattsville, MD
Period4/11/114/13/11

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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