Price volatility in Niger millet markets

Price volatility of food staples is one of the most complex factors affecting food security. Recent food price crises have raised academic interest in improved volatility assessment. The widely held assumption in econometric volatility models that long-run volatility is constant, has been recently questioned and partly blamed for these crises. A multiplicative MGARCH model recently proposed by Bauwens et al. is used in this article to model price volatility transmission along the Niger millet marketing chain. Results suggest important volatility links between consumer and producer prices, as well as noteworthy differences between short and long-run price dynamics.