TY - JOUR
T1 - Presidential voting and the local variability of economic hardship
AU - Cho, Wendy K.Tam
AU - Gimpel, James G.
PY - 2009/4/9
Y1 - 2009/4/9
N2 - We examine variations in the impact of several components of economic hardship on the 2008 presidential vote by county. High gas prices, mounting foreclosures, and rising unemployment all enhance the Democratic vote share in areas critical to winning an Electoral College majority. Using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), however, we show the varying impact of these forces, controlling for previous Democratic voting, race, age, and income. Economic problems do not produce anything like a uniform response, and not merely because they are geographically uneven in their intensity. Some populations hit by economic downturn would not have voted for the incumbent's party under any circumstances, while others supported the in-party in spite of hard times. Even so, the combined weight of rising jobless claims and escalating foreclosures was sufficiently unsettling in key states to make for an early call on Election Night.
AB - We examine variations in the impact of several components of economic hardship on the 2008 presidential vote by county. High gas prices, mounting foreclosures, and rising unemployment all enhance the Democratic vote share in areas critical to winning an Electoral College majority. Using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), however, we show the varying impact of these forces, controlling for previous Democratic voting, race, age, and income. Economic problems do not produce anything like a uniform response, and not merely because they are geographically uneven in their intensity. Some populations hit by economic downturn would not have voted for the incumbent's party under any circumstances, while others supported the in-party in spite of hard times. Even so, the combined weight of rising jobless claims and escalating foreclosures was sufficiently unsettling in key states to make for an early call on Election Night.
KW - Economic voting
KW - Geographically weighted regression
KW - Political geography
KW - Presidential elections
KW - The 2008 presidential election
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=67549106923&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=67549106923&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.2202/1540-8884.1286
DO - 10.2202/1540-8884.1286
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:67549106923
VL - 7
JO - Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics
JF - Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics
SN - 1540-8884
IS - 1
M1 - 1
ER -