Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects-October Update

Ty A Newell

Research output: Working paper


Control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission requires control of two human behaviors. A two-parameter, human behavior Covid-19 infection growth model continues to accurately predict total infections based on gross human interaction and local human interaction behaviors for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, NC). Since prediction model initiation on July 27, 2020, total infections for 8 states have grown by more than 20023 and Florida (189 have grown less. October displays combined impacts of increased social interactions as schools and businesses increase physical gatherings, coupled with climate dependent local interactions. The US, on average as of the end of October, has an Infection Parameter (IP) of 3.4 representing accelerating infection growth. Gross human interactions must be reduced by 15eg, face mask usage, ventilation) must be improved to reduce disease transmission efficiency by 27NY and NC) have had mild fall temperatures, which increases outdoor activities and increases building fresh air ventilation rates that suppress virus transmission efficiency. Mild temperatures in southern States (GA, FL and CA) during October have also helped suppress virus transmission. Midwest States experienced highly elevated infection rates due to combined effects of school openings coupled with a truncated fall season. WA stayed in the beneficial 70F (22C) to 50F (10C) zone through October, with minimal accelerated infection growth, but is now entering its heating season with average outdoor temperatures below 50F that are contributing to increased disease transmission efficiency.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementNo funding supports this workAuthor DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:All appropriate research reporting guidelines have been followed. I confirm no clinical trials were conducted. I confirm that no IRB/oversight body approval is required for this work.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data used for analyses are publicly available 1)Maryland Transportation Institute (2020). University of Maryland COVID-19 Impact Analysis Platform,, University of Maryland, College Park, USA 2) World Covid-19 infection data; 3) World and US Covid-19 data;, Prof Wade Fagen-Ulmschneider, Computer Science Dept, University of Illinois
Original languageEnglish (US)
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Number of pages16
StatePublished - Nov 16 2020

Publication series

PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press


  • Coronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
  • Novel coronavirus
  • 2019-nCoV
  • Pandemic


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