Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects-September Update

Ty A Newell

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

A two-parameter, human behavior Covid-19 infection growth model predicts total infections between -4.2overprediction) and 4.5underprediction) of actual infections from July 27, 2020 to September 30, 2020 for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, NC). During that time, total Covid-19 infections for 9 of the 10 modeled US States grew by 60MI) to 95MN). Only NY limited Covid-19 infection growth with an 117 to September 30, 2020. September is a month with contraposing effects of increased social interaction (eg, physical school openings) and outdoor temperatures decreasing to the 50F (10C) to 70F (21C) range in which outdoor activities and building ventilation are beneficially increased. All State infection predictions except GA, FL and CA predictions through September 30 are bounded by four prediction scenarios (no school with outdoor temperature effect, no school with no outdoor temperature effect, school with temperature effect, school with no temperature effect). GA, FL and CA continued along a path slightly below the linear infection growth boundary separating infection growth and decay, resulting in overprediction of infection growth over the two month simulation period(-3.1 -1.9 and -4.5. Three eastern States (NY, NC, and GA) are most accurately represented by models that assume no significant change in social interactions coupled with minor outdoor temperature effects. Four midwestern States (IL, MI, MN, OH) are most accurately modeled with minor outdoor temperature effects due to a delayed decrease in average outdoor temperatures in the Midwest. The remaining three States (WA, FL, and CA) are also in good agreement with the model but with differing weather condition and social interaction impacts. Overall, model predictions continue to support the basic premise that human behavior in the US oscillates across a linear infection growth boundary that divides accelerated infection growth and decaying infection transmission.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis work is unfundedAuthor DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:No IRB approval is required for the research.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data used for the report is publicly available.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/http://91-divoc.com/https://data.covid.umd.edu
Original languageEnglish (US)
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Number of pages19
DOIs
StateIn preparation - Oct 20 2020

Publication series

NamemedRxiv
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press

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