Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects-August Update

Ty A Newell

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

End-of-August updates for Covid-19 infection case predictions for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, and NC) are compared to actual data. Several states that experienced significant summer surges gained control of accelerating infection spread during August. The US as a whole and the 10 States investigated continue to follow periods of linear infection growth that defines a boundary separating accelerated infection growth and infection decay. August 31 predictions (initiated July 27, 2020) for four States (NY, WA, MI and MN) are within 10GA, IL, CA, and OH) agree between 10 and 20FL and NC) are greater than 20July summer surge, and human behavior reactions (ie, increased face mask usage and distancing) to accelerated infection growth. Outdoor temperature effects and school re-opening effects are not apparent nor expected for August. Human behavior parameters (Social Distance Index, SDI, and disease transmission efficiency, G, parameters) are adjusted to mirror August data. Comparisons of actual versus predicted daily new infection cases display the complexity of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementNo research support has been received for this work.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:No IRB oversight is required for this work.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data sources are cited and are publicly available.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/http://91-divoc.com/https://data.covid.umd.edu
Original languageEnglish (US)
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Number of pages21
DOIs
StateIn preparation - Sep 18 2020

Publication series

NamemedRxiv
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press

Keywords

  • Coronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
  • Novel coronavirus
  • 2019-nCoV
  • Pandemic

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