Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Using a Two Parameter Transmission Model Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects

Ty A Newell

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

Covid-19 infection case predictions (total cases) are made for August through December 2020 for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, and NC). A two-parameter model based on social distance index (SDI) and disease transmission efficiency (G) parameters is used to characterize SARS-CoV-2 disease spread. Current lack of coherent and coordinated US policy causes the US to follow a linear infection growth path with a limit cycle behavior that modulates the US between accelerating and decaying infection growth on either side of a linear growth path boundary. Four prediction cases are presented: 1) No school re-openings; fall season temperature effect 2) No school re-openings; no fall season temperature effect 3) School re-openings; fall season temperature effect 4) School re-openings; no fall season temperature effect Fall outdoor temperatures, in contrast to the 1918 pandemic, are predicted to be beneficial for dampening SARS-CoV-2 transmission in States as they pass through swing season temperature range of 70F to 50F. Physical re-opening of schools in September are predicted to accelerate infections. States with low current infectious case numbers (eg, NY) are predicted to be minimally impacted while States with high current infectious case numbers (eg, CA and FL) will be significantly impacted by school re-openings. Updated infection predictions will be posted monthly (Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec) with adjustments based on actual trends in SDI and G. Assessments related to outdoor temperature impact, school re-openings, and other public gathering re-openings will be discussed in updated reports.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementNo funding has supported this work.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:No IRB approvals required for this work.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data used for the report are publicly available. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/http://91-divoc.com/https://data.covid.umd.edu
Original languageEnglish (US)
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Number of pages24
DOIs
StateIn preparation - Aug 7 2020

Publication series

NamemedRxiv
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press

Keywords

  • Coronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
  • Novel coronavirus
  • 2019-nCoV
  • Pandemic

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Using a Two Parameter Transmission Model Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this