Predicting the effect of hospital closure on hospital utilization patterns

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Geographic patterns of hospital utilization were analyzed before and after the closure of Sydenham hospital in New York City. The purpose was to determine the accuracy with which hospital utilization patterns after closure could be predicted using standard spatial interaction modeling procedures. Gravity models were calibrated to represent travel to hospitals before and after closure for patients residing in Sydenham's primary service area. Using three variables, hospital size, distance and type, the models accurately described utilization patterns in each year. The distance parameter, however, changed substantially between the 2 years. In addition large errors were observed when the model calibrated before closure was used to predict utilization patterns afterward. The geographic distribution and likely causes of errors were analyzed, along with their implications for spatial modeling efforts.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)255-262
Number of pages8
JournalSocial Science and Medicine
Issue number3
StatePublished - 1988
Externally publishedYes


  • New York City
  • gravity model
  • hospital closure

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health(social science)
  • History and Philosophy of Science


Dive into the research topics of 'Predicting the effect of hospital closure on hospital utilization patterns'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this