TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic
T2 - a mathematical modelling study
AU - Lappe, Brooke L.
AU - Wikswo, Mary E.
AU - Kambhampati, Anita K.
AU - Mirza, Sara A.
AU - Tate, Jacqueline E.
AU - Kraay, Alicia N.M.
AU - Lopman, Ben A.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors are grateful for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s internal reviewers who provided thoughtful contributions and comments. The authors are also grateful for the data obtainable from public health diagnostic laboratories in the United States that submit laboratory reports of norovirus and rotavirus into NoroSTAT and NREVSS. BLL and BJL acknowledge support from NIH/NIGMS R01-GM124280.
Funding Information:
The authors are grateful for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s internal reviewers who provided thoughtful contributions and comments. The authors are also grateful for the data obtainable from public health diagnostic laboratories in the United States that submit laboratory reports of norovirus and rotavirus into NoroSTAT and NREVSS. BLL and BJL acknowledge support from NIH/NIGMS R01-GM124280.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).
PY - 2023/12
Y1 - 2023/12
N2 - Background: To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed. Methods: We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012–2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022–2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels. Results: We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70–90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70–90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection. Conclusions: These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.
AB - Background: To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed. Methods: We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012–2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022–2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels. Results: We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70–90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70–90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection. Conclusions: These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Mathematical modelling
KW - Norovirus
KW - Rotavirus
KW - Seasonality
KW - Surveillance
KW - Transmission
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85153429644&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85153429644&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1186/s12879-023-08224-w
DO - 10.1186/s12879-023-08224-w
M3 - Article
C2 - 37081456
AN - SCOPUS:85153429644
SN - 1471-2334
VL - 23
JO - BMC Infectious Diseases
JF - BMC Infectious Diseases
IS - 1
M1 - 254
ER -