Potential climatic consequences of increasing anthropogenic constituents in the atmosphere

M. Lal, S. K. Dube, P. C. Sinha, A. K. Jain

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


A comparison of the increase in equilibrium global-mean surface temperature due to plausible changes in the concentration of several trace gases in the atmosphere, based on calculations with a onedimensional radiative-convective model, is presented in this paper. We have calculated the changes in equilibrium surface temperature due to trace gas perturbations that are believed to have occurred in the past century. We also estimate the potential effects of the current trends in trace gas changes through to the middle of the next century on the global surface temperature. We obtain a surface equilibrium temperature about 0.95 K lower in the pre-industrial atmosphere as compared to the present day atmosphere. The model results suggest that, although the surface warming due to CO2 increase since the industrial revolution is significant, the combined changes in other trace gases might have contributed a warming about 75% as large as that due to CO2. The possible climatic consequences of the ongoing anthropogenic changes in trace gases through the next century are also discussed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)639-642
Number of pages4
JournalAtmospheric Environment (1967)
Issue number4
StatePublished - 1986
Externally publishedYes


  • 1-D radiative-convective model
  • Anthropogenic changes
  • global surface warming
  • greenhouse effect
  • trace gases

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Environmental Science
  • General Earth and Planetary Sciences


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